Master of Ceremonies: Tony Battaini
Reflection: Robert Fisher (See the transcript lat in this bulletin).
President Philip welcomed members and guests, highlighting Guest Speaker Alan Oster who would later be introduced by Vice President Branko Panich, and Visiting International Rotarians: Chris Gasteier (D6600, Northwest Ohio, USA) ,Dores Schembri (Kensington & Chelsea UK). Full details of all guests are included later in this Bulletin.
Mary Barry delivered a brief address highlighting forthcoming Thomas Baker Oration featuring Professor John Greenwood, Director and Chief Executive of the Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute on Wednesday 13 May.
She also noted the success of the ForaMeal packing event, attended by 20 Rotary Melbourne members and 70 students at RMIT on 23 April. Impressively, 10,500 meals for distribution to needy people locally and around the world. A similar packing event is planned on 29 September 26, hosted by the University of Melbourne Rotaract. Mary thanked Yidan Xi, for her work in coordinating these events, as well as President Elect Carol Bond for organising the venue. She praised the Rotary Club of Canterbury for their tireless work in organising these events and distributing their output.
President Philip then reminded all of the need to support the Annual appeal which will enable the Rotary Melbourne Public Benevolent Institution (PBI) to fund worthwhile projects for needy people.
Vice President Branko Panich then stepped up to Chair the meeting and introduce Alan Oster, our guest speaker.
Alan Oster offered a candid, wide-ranging assessment of Australia’s economic outlook, drawing on four decades in forecasting, including 33 years as NAB’s Chief Economist and earlier senior roles in Commonwealth Treasury. Alan brought with him a comprehensive presentation which he decided not to show. He has graciously agreed that we can view its content by clicking HERE:
He began by stressing that no one can predict the future with certainty, especially in the present environment, where forecasts depend heavily on assumptions about war, oil prices, Donald Trump’s influence, and global central bank behaviour. While access to data has improved dramatically, Alan argued that business and consumer confidence remain crucial—and often irrational—drivers of economic outcomes.
A major theme was the impact of rising oil prices. Petrol makes up around 3% of Australia’s CPI, so a sharp price increase feeds quickly into headline inflation. However, Alan cautioned that the deeper effect comes later, through pressure on household spending. He estimated that each 10-cent rise in petrol could shave around 0.1% from GDP, with indirect effects potentially doubling the impact. As a result, he expects economic growth to be weaker than official forecasts, with unemployment potentially rising from 4.3% to around 4.8%—meaning roughly 100,000 more people unemployed.
He highlighted the strain already felt by households, especially mortgage holders and renters. While retirees may benefit from higher interest rates, the burden on indebted households is significant. He also noted increased reliance on charities, including assistance with car registration for people living in vehicles.
Alan expressed concern about business confidence, saying recent readings were as weak as during the early-1990s recession. Businesses may delay investment and hiring, creating conditions that “feel like a recession” even if official figures avoid that label.
On the federal budget, he urged listeners to look beyond the headline deficit and focus on public sector demand as a share of GDP. This has risen from a long-run average of around 21–23% to about 30%, driven largely by health, social security and the NDIS. He warned that these are areas of weak measured productivity, contributing to Australia’s broader productivity challenge.
He was critical of further interest rate rises, describing the Reserve Bank’s current approach as bordering on “inflation zealotry”. Since oil-driven inflation is a supply shock, he warned that raising rates too aggressively could compound the economic slowdown.
On housing, Alan said markets vary sharply by state. Perth and Adelaide remain strong, while Melbourne is flat and Sydney is weakening. He expects house price growth nationally to settle around 5% annually.
In questions, Alan argued Australia’s public debt is manageable, with federal debt around 30% of GDP—low by international standards. He also said Australia remains attractive to overseas investors, although he questioned whether the country captures enough tax benefit from resource exports.
He concluded that the short-term outlook is difficult, but he remains optimistic about Australia’s medium-term prospects, citing its education system, legal framework and strong position in the Asian century.
After thanking all involved in delivering the meeting, Branko Panich reminded members of next week’s evening meeting at Rotary Melbourne’s headquarter where Peace Champion Robert McGuirk will lead a conversation about Project Rozanna and other Rotary Peace initiatives.
The video of the whole meeting can be viewed here
The video of Alan Oster’s address can be viewed here
